Leonard The Monkey

CZLTA - if you own um - CROX $5 puts going for pennies today - your one smart monkey!

The executives should be locked up.

We have lots of gas - not so much oil - hence the decoupling of oil and gas price ratio's. It takes a lot of work to start substituting gas for oil but I fully believe that will happen in time.

Looking at the sell off in energy we are still at levels that more then support the bullish stories on many of these stocks. I'm not going to step in the way as they knife lower but I'll be there when they hit bottom and start the bounce up. Unlike the financials (whose bounce I was deep in the jungle at the time) many of these companies actually have outstanding fundamentals.

Stocks like VNR still are holding up well due to the strong hedges that they have. Oil and gas could go down another 50% and this company would still yield over 11% over the next 3 years. You think oil and gas will only go down over the next three years?

Now I did buy some CLNE today when it was down about 5% on the day. Nat. Gas going under 9 would be great news for this company but even more important is the Boone campaign about to take full force calling for nat gas to be the new transportation fuel for every government vehicle, police, fire, ect... If he can pull that off we'll be getting a huge payoff. Plus I just like listening to Boone - he's bad ass. I also think he wants to be the new energy secretary. God if that happens what do you think will happen to the wind and nat gas companies he owns? BOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Worth a gamble.

The next qtr results will suck due to the crazy run up in Nat. Gas but if this dramatic decline continues in natty and Boone can really pull this off in congress the results will be over looked... more later...

Maybe I should just go back on vacation?

Up a quick 20 points seems like a good idea to take profits here.

VNR just bought another property in TX with a bunch of nat gas. but what is really cool is that they issued shares to help finance the purchase which the seller "paid up" for with the least VNR can get is 15.75 a share

The shares opened today around 15 but have moved nicely higher. If they can re-hedge on an energy spike this one will "rocket" higher.

Long: VNR

Looks like I missed the death of tech - AAPL will be very interesting given the positives surrounding their outlook, will overpriced laptops get in the way?

PNRA has held up too well and with people starting to cut out lunches you have to think the downside would outweigh the upside here but their reports have been so good I'll wait to see.

BAC - how can they not be a trainwreck after the CFC nightmare?

XTO and HAL should report great qtrs. but if energy continues to drop it won't matter... for now.

7/21/08

AAPL Apple Inc. Q3 2008 $ 1.08 21-Jul AMC
BAC Bank of America Corporation Q2 2008 $ 0.53 21-Jul
CRNT Ceragon Networks Ltd Q2 2008 $ 0.13 21-Jul BMO
TXN Texas Instruments Q2 2008 $ 0.46 21-Jul

7/22/08

BRCM Broadcom Q2 2008 $ 0.36 22-Jul AMC
CAT Caterpillar Inc. Q2 2008 $ 1.54 22-Jul BMO
DPZ Domino's Inc. Q2 2008 $ 0.23 22-Jul BMO
ETFC E*TRADE Financial Corp. Q2 2008 -$ 0.14 22-Jul AMC
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Q2 2008 -$ 0.10 22-Jul BMO
FMER FirstMerit Q2 2008 $ 0.34 22-Jul 7:30 AM
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Q2 2008 $ 2.43 22-Jul BMO
HAL Halliburton Company Q2 2008 $ 0.68 22-Jul
JEC Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. Q3 2008 $ 0.82 22-Jul BMO
KEY KeyCorp Q2 2008 -$ 2.57 22-Jul
LMT Lockheed Martin Q2 2008 $ 1.88 22-Jul
NBR Nabors Industries Q2 2008 $ 0.69 22-Jul AMC
NEOG Neogen Q4 2008 $ 0.20 22-Jul BMO
PNRA Panera Bread Q2 2008 $ 0.49 22-Jul AMC
PCP Precision Castparts Q1 2009 $ 1.93 22-Jul BMO
STI SunTrust Q2 2008 $ 0.64 22-Jul BMO
WB Wachovia Corporation Q2 2008 -$ 0.78 22-Jul BMO
WM Washington Mutual Q2 2008 -$ 1.05 22-Jul AMC
XTO XTO Energy Inc. Q2 2008 $ 1.05 22-Jul BMO
YHOO Yahoo, Inc. Q2 2008 $ 0.11 22-Jul AMC

As you can obviously see by the markets reaction it was a very successful adventure.

GS is on fire as it should be as people finally give up on the SKF for now.

RIG is still a good buy even with oil retreating as the oil story is not played out yet.

VNR needs to get cheaper before this hits so I can be a richer monkey as I buy more.

Now I'm back to going through the 10,000 email news alerts from the few days I was gone and catching up on what I missed.

I have to admit that during the camping, boating, moonshine, wake boards to the head and the infamous dogfish, it was really great to get away from the "plugged in world" and spend some quality time with great people! I recommend it highly!

Be back in a week!

Feel free to send this ungodly market back to the depths of hell (can't be much farther) so I have some good prices to pick from once I get back, after all that will be after I've shot many bears making it a great time to buy.

Another plug for offshore drilling company Transocean (RIG). The company will generate 25% of its market capitalization in free cash flow over the next four years, FBR says. Additionally, FBR believes that record tightness in the "floater" market should push day rates for the company's rigs yet higher:

Record tightness. Our monthly backlog report (published separately today) shows a 5% sequential increase in backlog, caused mostly by new build contracts. Backlog as a percentage of supply is at record tight levels for the 24- and 36-month time period, at 104% and 93%, respectively. This should continue to drive day rates higher.

FBR's 2010 EPS estimate moves from $18.40 to $18.95 on higher rate expectations. FBR reiterates its Overweight rating and $182 price target.

Jesup & Lamont initiates coverage on Transocean (NYSE: RIG) with a Buy rating and a $231.88 price target.

The firm said, "Transocean is the world's largest offshore driller in the world. The current commodity environment should continue the current strong demand for the company's rigs and employees. With ten rigs coming online, the fleet size should continue to grow over the next few years and investors should benefit from the increased earnings stream. Investors should consider Transocean for their energy portfolios based on the current outlook for the company and the industry."

The company also highlighted that as of March 31, 2008, RIG had a backlog of over $32 billion for its contract drilling segment. Since then, numerous additional contracts have been announced. Jesup & Lamont believes that the merger with GlobalSantaFe "continues to add value as the two cultures are becoming one and the cost savings are beginning to be realized." The company plans to devote free cash flow for the next two years to debt reduction of the $15 Billion in debt created by the merger. Finally, the firm said, "steady contract announcements should indicate deepwater and jackup markets are currently strong."

Transocean Inc. is an international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells.

BDGE just ipo'd

Yes a bank stock ipo'd in this... and it owns mortgages... almost hard to believe.

So how did this happen.

Well they own one bank in the Hamptons and have mortgages on some ridiculous size houses that are magically maintaining their value.

This just in... a lot of really really rich people are still rich.

BDGE may even see an influx in capital as the uber rich see their banks become federal property and as they have way more then the FDIC limits they may wish to put some of that stash in a much safer bank.

They pay a 4.3% dividend and if you have to own a bank, I bless this one.

Note: very low volume so if gets caught up in a massive selloff it could make a nice opportunity.

Clever funeral home, though I plan on being cryogenically frozen until they figure out how to make better livers...